The Mamdani Prediction
History doesn’t repeat at the same place, but the pattern stays the same.
Bengal, 1757
Nawab Siraj-ud-Daulah ruled Bengal badly. He was unjust and abrasive. Jagat Seth was a rich banker who had a real problem with this ruler. So he invited Robert Clive and the British East India Company to fix it. He bribed the Nawab’s commander, Mir Jafar, to step aside during the battle. Mir Jafar did. The British won Bengal without a major fight. Jagat Seth thought he won. India lost for 200 years.
The mistake was simple. Jagat Seth focused on removing an unjust ruler but ignored what his method would create. Foreign intervention, betrayal, bribery became the pattern in future. The means of change became the future itself.
New York, 2025
Two days ago, Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral election. He got over 1 million votes. His opponent got 500,000. He’s the first Muslim mayor of New York and the youngest in over a century.
His promises were big. Freeze rents. Build 200,000 affordable housing units in ten years. Free public transit. Free childcare. Raise minimum wages. Pay for it all by taxing the rich and corporations.
New York has 750,000 Muslims, about 9% of the city. Even if every single one voted for Mamdani (they didn’t as many are children or non-citizens), that’s only 750,000. He got a million votes. So he won because he mobilized Muslim voters as a base, then pulled in progressive non-Muslims who want affordable housing and social programs. Smart mathematics. Muslim identity plus socialist economics equals victory.
The Pattern
Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi did this already. Win on populist promises. Deliver some token gestures. Spend the term blaming the central government for blocking everything. Build a personal brand through conflict. Move to the next ladder. Delhi to Punjab to national ambitions. Leave the mess behind. Kejriwal even built himself a “Sheesh Mahal” – a lavish official residence – while talking about the common man.
Mamdani will do the same thing over the next four years.
What Won’t Happen
No rent freeze will actually work. Market forces will continue. Maybe some symbolic gesture, nothing real. Housing construction will fall far short. Maybe 5000 to 20,000 units at most. Not 200,000. Free transit won’t happen. Studies, maybe. Pilot programs at best. In fact many pilots would run including those not announced. Childcare expansion will be limited. Some programs, not universal coverage.
What Will Happen
Mamdani will spend four years making speeches. He’ll blame everyone else for blocking his agenda. His memorable personal acts of jumping into icy Coney Island waters in a suit to dramatize his “rent freeze” pledge, may be repeated many times whenever his popularity seems to have taken a hit. The federal government under Trump will be Enemy Number One. “They won’t give us funding.”
New York State government in Albany will be Enemy Number Two. “They refuse to cooperate.”
Courts will be Enemy Number Three. “They block our progressive policies.”
The business community will be Enemy Number Four. “They obstruct change.”
He’ll stay in the news constantly. Palestinian rights advocacy will be prominent. Critics will accuse him of antisemitism. He’ll deflect and use it to prove he’s threatening the establishment. Regular national media appearances. Strong social media presence is built on conflict. By 2028, he’ll start exploring a Senate run or gubernatorial bid. By 2029, he’ll announce it.
Meanwhile, New York’s affordability crisis will stay unsolved or get worse. Some wealthy people and corporations will leave the city. Tax base problems will emerge. His supporters will stay loyal because he “fought for them” against powerful enemies. His failure will prove his sincerity – “they blocked him because he threatened the system.”
The Real Game
Mamdani doesn’t have deep convictions. He has a strategy. He presents himself as a Muslim democratic socialist because it works. The Muslim identity gives him a base, protects him from criticism (call it Islamophobia), creates a “historic first” story, and positions him in national progressive politics. But the identity is packaging. The socialism is positioning. The plan isn’t to govern. The plan is to stay in the news for four years and build a national profile, then move up.
Margaret Thatcher said socialists eventually run out of other people’s money. The update is sharper. Modern populists don’t even try to spend it. They just use the promise of spending it to climb the ladder. The real spending will be on advertisement proclaiming achievements.
Desperate voters accept grand promises. When nothing happens, there are ready scapegoats. The base stays loyal because their leader is “fighting” for them. Failure becomes proof of sincerity, not incompetence. The politician builds a brand and moves on.
The Parallel
Jagat Seth in Bengal thought he was using Robert Clive to solve his problem. Clive was using him. New York progressives think they’re using Mamdani to solve their affordability crisis. Mamdani is using them to build his career. The exploited always think they’re doing the exploiting. The British stayed in India for 200 years. Modern political operators stay four years and move to the next platform. Different timeline, same exploitation of desperation.
Testing the Prediction
This prediction can be proven wrong. By November 2029, check these things.
I’m wrong if rent freeze actually work, if 100,000 or more housing units get built, if transit becomes free or heavily subsidized, if he runs for re-election on his record instead of jumping to higher office, if he builds working relationships instead of constant conflict. If he keeps his mouth shut and delivers something tangible in 4 years.
I’m right if policy delivery is minimal with blame going outward, if he announces a Senate or Governor run by 2028, if his career is built on controversy and national progressive branding, if New York’s affordability crisis stays unsolved, if he leaves for higher office with promises unfulfilled.
Why I’m Confident
I’m good at predicting futures from patterns. No astrology needed. He’s been in the State Assembly doing exactly what he’ll do as mayor. Introduce ambitious bills. Get symbolic wins. Create viral moments. Build the brand. Blame obstacles. Move up the ladder. He went from housing counselor to State Assembly to mayor in a few years. The velocity itself tells you something. He’s not building things that take time to mature. He’s collecting titles. A man who spent his State Assembly years on theatrical gestures and symbolic legislation isn’t suddenly going to become a detailed policy implementer as mayor. He’s going to do more of what worked – speeches, conflict, brand-building, and ladder-climbing.
The means are the continuation. His means so far have been performance and positioning. That’s what the next four years will be too. The pattern is old. Crisis creates desperation. An ambitious operator spots the mathematical opportunity. Grand promises mobilize voting blocs. Victory creates hope. Performative conflict replaces actual delivery. The operator uses the platform for personal advancement. The crisis remains. The operator moves on. The exploited realize too late who was using whom.
Mamdani’s means like identity mobilization, populist promises, strategic positioning, performative conflict, won’t solve New York’s problems. They’ll build Mamdani’s career.
Four years will tell.
Documented: November 7, 2025 Check back: November 2029