India-Turkey Relations: From Cordiality to Strategic Competition

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Geographic advantage

Turkey sits at a crossroads. It controls the Turkish Straits connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The country bridges Europe and Asia across 783,000 square kilometers. With 84 million people and a GDP of $1.3 trillion, Turkey should be thriving. But the economy tells a different story. Turkey faces 50-60% inflation. The currency is unstable. International confidence in Erdogan’s economic management keeps falling. These domestic pressures make Turkey’s international posturing look desperate rather than confident.

President Erdogan has other plans. He wants to restore Istanbul as the seat of Islamic leadership. He’s competing with Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Muslim world. Turkish troops now sit in Qatar, 1,000 of them. Turkey involves itself in Syria, Libya, and the South Caucasus for its strategic global game. So far it has  reached nowhere.

Turkey-Pakistan Alliance

Since 2009, Turkey has built a systematic military partnership with Pakistan. This functions as an anti-India axis, plain and simple. The cooperation runs deep. Turkey provides Pakistan with submarine technology and naval upgrades. They’re jointly developing fifth-generation fighter aircraft called the Khan program. UAVs, electro-optical targeting systems, air-launched cruise missiles flow from Turkey to Pakistan.

Turkey is now Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier after China. This fundamentally strengthens Pakistan’s military capabilities against India. Pakistan sees Turkey as an alternative to over-dependence on China. The United States has proven unreliable. For Turkey, Pakistan offers a foothold in South Asia and a partner for Islamic world leadership. The Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan axis was formalized through the Islamabad Declaration in January 2021, then the Baku Declaration later that year.

This alliance directly threatens Indian interests. During Operation Sindoor, India’s counter-terrorism strikes following the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 tourists, Turkey reportedly supplied over 350 drones and military operatives to Pakistan. Turkish-made Songar drones were deployed by Pakistan. Indian air defense systems neutralized them. This exposed the operational dimension of Turkey-Pakistan military cooperation.

Anti-India Coalition

Turkey positions itself against India on every front. In every regional conflict where India has interests, Turkey takes the opposite side. On Kashmir, Turkey has been vocally critical since India’s 2019 abrogation of Article 370. Erdogan repeatedly raises Kashmir at the UN and other international forums. He personally spoke on Pakistan’s behalf at the UN General Assembly. He treats Kashmir as a Muslim solidarity issue, not a bilateral Indo-Pakistani matter.

In the South Caucasus, Turkey staunchly supports Azerbaijan against Armenia. India responded by becoming Armenia’s largest defense supplier. By early 2025, India exported approximately $600 million in defense equipment to Armenia. This includes Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, Akash air defense systems, Swathi weapon-locating radars. BrahMos missiles might follow.

On Israel-Palestine, India has developed strategic ties with Israel while Turkey positions itself as Hamas’s champion. This ideological divergence has hardened as both countries compete for influence in the Middle East.

India’s Encirclement

India hasn’t responded with rhetoric. Instead, India has built a systematic strategic encirclement, leveraging Turkey’s own regional vulnerabilities.

Greece

India and Greece signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2024. The relationship deepened rapidly. Joint naval exercises took place in the Mediterranean in April 2025. Indian defense systems, including the Akash air defense system and BrahMos missiles, are being explored for Greek procurement. Cooperation with Hellenic Aerospace Industry and Hellenic Defence Systems is underway. Both countries committed to double bilateral trade from $2 billion.

Greece’s maritime disputes with Turkey over Aegean Sea islands provide India with significant leverage. Some islands sit just 10 kilometers from the Turkish coast. Greece controls most Aegean islands despite their proximity to Turkey. This remains a perpetual source of Ankara’s strategic anxiety.

Cyprus

Cyprus has been divided since 1974. Turkish forces occupy the north, Greeks control the south. This divided island has emerged as a key node in India’s Mediterranean strategy.

Prime Minister Modi visited Cyprus in June 2025. This was the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in over two decades. The visit marked a strategic breakthrough. India-Cyprus cooperation now encompasses defense technology transfers, including air defense and surveillance systems. Potential UPI-based cross-border payment systems are being discussed. The India-Greece-Cyprus Business and Investment Council enables trilateral cooperation. India gains strategic use of Cyprus’s ports and airfields near Turkey’s southern flank.

Armenia

Armenia represents India’s most consequential move in encircling Turkey. Following Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by Turkey, India positioned itself as Armenia’s security guarantor. The numbers tell the story. 80% of Armenia’s defense purchases now come from India. India stationed its first military attaché in Yerevan in April 2024. This was the first such posting in the Caucasus. $4 billion in pending MoUs cover missiles, air defense, and artillery.

India-Iran-Armenia cooperation on trade corridors and connectivity is underway. Discussions continue for Armenia-Greece-France-India defense cooperation in a quadrilateral format. This relationship serves multiple purposes. It pressures Turkey’s eastern flank. It counters the Turkey-Azerbaijan axis. It provides India with strategic access to the South Caucasus as a gateway to Central Asia and the Caspian basin.

Naval Power Projection

India has dramatically expanded its naval presence beyond traditional areas. Regular exercises now take place with France, Italy, Spain, Egypt, and Morocco in the Mediterranean. India participates in multilateral exercises with NATO members. The strategic vision has shifted from Gulf of Aden-to-Malacca to Gibraltar-to-Philippines. India is building interoperability with European navies to NATO standards.

Economic Warfare

India’s economic countermeasures have been surgical and devastating.

Contract Cancellations

India terminated all agreements with Turkish companies for fleet support ships. The estimated value was $1.5-2 billion. Security clearance for Celebi Aviation was revoked across nine Indian airports. Caranda wet lease arrangements were cancelled. Turkish shipbuilding projects were blocked.

Trade Contraction

Bilateral trade plummeted from $13.8 billion in FY 2022-23 to $8.7 billion in FY 2024-25. That’s a 37% decline. India’s trade surplus shrank from $5.4 billion to $2.7 billion.

Tourism Boycott

Following Turkish support for Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, Indian citizens and businesses launched widespread boycotts. Major travel platforms reported a 60% drop in bookings and a 250% surge in cancellations.

Indians constituted less than 1% of Turkey’s foreign visitors, though. The boycott’s impact on Turkey’s $50+ billion tourism industry remained limited.

Academic Freeze

Universities including Jamia Millia Islamia and Jawaharlal Nehru University suspended academic partnerships with Turkish institutions.

BRICS Veto

India blocked Turkey’s entry into BRICS. BRICS membership requires unanimous approval. This denial carries symbolic weight. It signals India’s willingness to use institutional power against Turkey’s multilateral ambitions.

The IMEC Factor

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor represents the most ambitious component of India’s strategy. IMEC aims to permanently diminish Turkey’s relevance. The corridor was announced at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023. The proposed route runs Mumbai to Jebel Ali in UAE, then through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel’s Haifa Port, reaching Greece’s Piraeus and finally Europe. This corridor deliberately bypasses Turkey and the Turkish Straits. It bypasses Iran and Iraq. It bypasses Syria. It bypasses the Suez Canal and Red Sea chokepoints. It bypasses the entire African continent.

IMEC isn’t merely about trade efficiency, though the 40% reduction in transit times and $5.4 billion in annual savings matter. IMEC is about permanently diminishing the strategic importance of Turkey’s control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. The corridor encompasses three pillars. Transportation includes integrated rail and maritime networks with capacity for 1.5-3 million TEUs annually. Energy infrastructure includes interconnected electricity and hydrogen pipelines. Digital infrastructure includes fiber-optic cables and cross-border connectivity.

Current Status

Despite initial momentum, IMEC faces substantial challenges. The corridor’s viability hinges on stability in Gaza for Haifa Port operations. Iranian airstrikes on Haifa in June 2025 highlighted this vulnerability, though they caused no damage. Estimated costs of project has reached $600 billion. Saudi Arabia has committed $20 billion, but significant funding gaps remain.

The exact ratio for public vs. private funding have not been finalized but current projections suggest that public investment will cover a major portion of the foundational infrastructure. The private capital will be crucial for operational and technological expansions. Some estimates indicate around 60-70% public funding with 30-40% from private sources, but this will evolve with project phases and investor confidence.

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and broader Middle Eastern conflicts threaten infrastructure security. Railway gauge standardization, customs unions, and cross-border coordination across multiple countries pose massive logistical challenges.

IMEC has maintained political momentum. President Trump’s in his second term and European Commission President von der Leyen’s visit to India in February 2025, all parties reaffirmed commitment. France appointed a special envoy for IMEC. Italy designated its own coordinator emphasizing Trieste’s role. The Indo-Mediterranean Initiative was launched to track progress.

Turkey’s Dilemma

Turkey possesses a capable NATO-standard navy. Theoretically, it could interfere with Mediterranean shipping. IMEC’s route passes through waters controlled by NATO allies like France, Italy, and Greece, though. Turkish naval interference would be politically and militarily untenable.

Erdogan can protest diplomatically, but he cannot disrupt the corridor without antagonizing the entire Western alliance. The economic impact on Turkey is already measurable. Lost transit revenues, diminished strategic importance, and exclusion from a major 21st-century trade corridor represent a permanent degradation of Turkey’s historic geographic advantage.

Expanding Boundaries

India’s response to Turkey reflects a broader transformation in Indian strategic thinking. India is no longer constrained by traditional geographic boundaries or historical patterns of engagement. The geographic expansion is dramatic. From South Asia to the Indo-Pacific. From the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean. From bilateral relationships to multilateral frameworks. From reactive diplomacy to proactive encirclement.

The military posture has shifted. Naval exercises now extend from Gibraltar to the Philippines. Defense exports reached ₹24,000 crore in 2024 with targets of ₹50,000 crore by decade’s end. India supplies full military platforms, not just components, to strategic partners. Interoperability with NATO-standard forces comes through regular exercises.

Economic statecraft has matured. India shows willingness to sacrifice billions in trade for strategic objectives. Market access becomes leverage through blocking BRICS membership and canceling contracts. Integration into alternative global supply chains happens through IMEC. India positions itself as the world’s biggest oil refiner and exporter.

The Civilizational Subtext

Beneath the military maneuvers and economic statistics lies a deeper civilizational narrative.

Turkey’s Nostalgia

Erdogan’s foreign policy is rooted in Ottoman glory. Turkey yearns for lost caliphate status. Resentment at being excluded from modern power structures drives policy. Turkey seeks Islamic solidarity, historical vindication, and restoration of 16th-century relevance.

Pakistan’s Identity Crisis

Pakistan’s evolving discomfort in the India-Turkey-IMEC triangle often gets overlooked. Reports suggest Pakistan is being pressured into Gaza peacekeeping roles. This likely aims to create political conditions necessary for IMEC’s success through Haifa Port. This places Pakistan in an impossible position. Pakistan must support its Turkish ally while being maneuvered into enabling infrastructure that permanently bypasses Pakistani territory. IMEC diminishes Pakistan’s veto over India’s westward connectivity.

Pakistan positions itself as the ideological leader of the Muslim world. It lacks the economic or military capacity for such a role, though. The Turkey partnership provides psychological validation more than strategic capability. In Gaza he will end up supporting Israel and opposing Muslims cause which will be a blow to its self image as leader of Islamic world.

India’s Pragmatism

India’s approach is notably devoid of civilizational grievance or religious identity. Instead, India pursues hard-nosed strategic pluralism based on expanding economic and military capabilities, building diverse partnerships across ideological lines, using geographic and economic leverage systematically, and thinking in multi-decade timeframes.

India engages simultaneously with Israel and Iran, with Greece and Armenia, with France and the UAE. All are chosen for specific strategic purposes rather than religious or civilizational affinity.

Turkey’s Options

Turkey’s response options are constrained on multiple fronts.

Economic: With 50-60% inflation and declining foreign investment, Turkey cannot afford to lose the Indian market entirely. Turkish companies and Erdogan’s government understand that Indians comprise a significant consumer base, even if tourism boycotts haven’t crippled Turkey’s overall numbers.

Military: Turkey’s NATO membership prevents open confrontation with India’s new Mediterranean partners. Any naval interference with IMEC would isolate Turkey within the alliance.

Diplomatic: Turkey’s vocal support for Pakistan has hardened Indian public opinion. Even if Erdogan moderates his Kashmir rhetoric, Indian strategic planners have already written off Turkey as a reliable partner and moved to permanent containment.

Strategic: IMEC’s implementation is now backed by the United States, European Union, Gulf monarchies, and Israel. Turkey cannot disrupt this coalition without catastrophic diplomatic costs.

India’s Strategy

The India-Turkey confrontation reveals a fundamental shift in Indian foreign policy. India has moved from defensive posturing to offensive encirclement, from bilateral thinking to regional power projection, and from reactive diplomacy to multi-vector strategic planning.

Turkey, despite its historical significance and geographic advantages, finds itself outmaneuvered on every front. Economically pressured through trade reduction. Militarily countered through arms sales to its rivals. Strategically bypassed through IMEC. Diplomatically isolated through BRICS vetoes. Geographically encircled through Greece-Cyprus-Armenia.

Most significantly, India has demonstrated that 21st-century strategic competition isn’t about controlling territory or historical grievances. It’s about building economic corridors, forging flexible partnerships, and leveraging institutional power.

Turkey’s Ottoman nostalgia and Pakistan’s Islamic solidarity rhetoric cannot compete with India’s expanding defense exports, systematic alliance-building, and integration into global trade infrastructure.

The Future

The India-Turkey relationship is unlikely to return to the warmth of earlier decades. Structural factors have created a stable equilibrium of hostility. Turkey’s Pakistan alliance, IMEC’s implementation, India’s Armenian commitment, and mutual strategic encirclement are now locked in.

For India, Turkey represents a manageable challenge, not an existential threat. India’s Mediterranean partnerships, Armenian defense relationship, and IMEC integration will continue regardless of Turkish protests. India has successfully transformed Turkey’s geographic advantages into strategic liabilities.

For Turkey, the options are stark. Continue down the path of confrontation and watch strategic relevance diminish. Or fundamentally reassess the Pakistan alliance and Kashmir stance. Given Erdogan’s domestic political needs and ideological commitments, the former seems more likely.

In contemporary geopolitics, geography is no longer destiny. India’s systematic dismantling of Turkey’s traditional advantages demonstrates that economic dynamism, flexible partnerships, and long-term strategic planning can overcome even the most favorable geographic positions. As India’s area of strategic interest expands from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean and beyond, Turkey stands as a cautionary tale. Historical significance and geographic advantages mean little without economic dynamism, diplomatic flexibility, and strategic foresight.

The India-Turkey cold war has only one likely trajectory. Deeper Indian integration into Mediterranean and Middle Eastern security architecture. Continued Turkish isolation from India’s economic and strategic rise. IMEC’s eventual implementation as the physical manifestation of Turkey’s 21st-century irrelevance to India’s westward ambitions.

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