(Part 4)
# Pakistan After the Epistemological Collapse
Societies function on cognitive ability to perceive reality and truth from myriad web of political bias or propaganda. If a society loses this ability, it is inevitable that it will decline in every aspect of life. This is the root cause of decline of Pakistan. Those in charge of administration of Pakistan have ensured systematic destruction of the cognitive infrastructure in the society which is necessary to process reality
In Parts 1, 2, and 3 of this series, we documented the death of conversation, the material collapse trajectory, and the structural impossibility of economic revival through IT. But the root cause of all these is the loss of capacity to distinguish truth from falsehood.
This sounds academic. In India we converse differently. Some people consume ‘Bhang’ which is made from leaves of cannabis plant, for a high. Some people share it with friends. In Pakistan ‘Bhang’ is mixed in water well or water supply. Now the whole society is intoxicated. Let me explain.
## The Truth Shock
Terrorist Ajmal Kasab was twenty-one years old when he arrived in Mumbai in November 2008. He had studied only until Class IV in an Urdu-medium state school in Punjab. His father sold dahi bhalla from a handcart in Lahore. Kasab drew 700 rupees monthly doing odd jobs before joining Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Rakesh Maria, who later became Mumbai Police Commissioner, interrogated Kasab for eighty-one days. In his book *Let Me Say It Now*, Maria describes what he discovered about Kasab’s worldview.
Kasab genuinely believed that Muslims in India could not offer namaaz. He believed mosques were locked by authorities. He believed Muslims lived as second-class citizens, oppressed and controlled.
When Kasab heard the azaan five times daily from the Crime Branch lockup, he thought it was his imagination. This was not how it was supposed to be.
Maria instructed his team to take Kasab to the mosque near Metro Cinema. When Kasab saw Muslims praying freely with his own eyes, he was bewildered.
“This was not how it was supposed to be!”
Kasab had no real knowledge of India or the world at large, except a firm conviction that India, America, and Israel were the greatest enemies of Pakistan and Islam. This conviction was not chosen. It was absorbed from childhood through an education system documented by the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom.
The textbooks Kasab studied taught that “cooperation with Hindus is impossible” and that Hindus planned to “enslave Muslims.” These were not fringe materials. They were the official curriculum reaching over 41 million children. We dealt with this in detail in part 3.
Kasab represents the first dimension of epistemic collapse: when education systematically plants false realities, individuals cannot process contradictory evidence even when physically confronted by it.
## The Fake Discoveries
Pakistan is about to get rich. Every citizen of it will be wealthy. It is just around the corner. Luck is the destiny. That is the official narrative of Pakistan. This is how the people of Pakistan are convinced about it.
In March 2019, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced a “possible massive find” of oil offshore. It was touted as “Asia’s largest oil and gas reserve.”
Hours later, Pakistan’s own Petroleum Division denied it. ExxonMobil, ENI, and other companies had drilled beyond 5,500 meters. They found nothing. “The drilling work has now been abandoned,” an official told DawnNewsTV.
In September 2024, reports emerged of oil and gas reserves discovered in Pakistan’s territorial waters. Some estimates suggested this constituted the “fourth-largest oil and gas reserves in the world.” The discovery would “change the country’s destiny.”
The report acknowledged that extraction would require $5 billion investment and take four to five years. An expert called it “wishful thinking” until prospects were analyzed and drilling began.
In September 2025, Pakistan Petroleum Limited announced a “major oil and gas discovery” in Punjab’s Dhok Sultan-03 well. It was described as a “milestone achievement” that could “strengthen Pakistan’s energy mix.”
In January 2025, a former caretaker minister announced on social media that Rs800 billion worth of gold had been discovered near Sindh. The Geological Survey of Pakistan had confirmed 2.8 million tolas of gold after analyzing samples from 127 locations.
The pattern repeats every few months. Search “Every Pakistani will be rich soon with new discovery” and the results multiply with keywords like: “JACKPOT for Pakistan,” “Pakistan going to get rich soon,” “Bankrupt Pakistan hits JACKPOT,” “treasure of black gold found.”
During this same period, from 2019 to 2025, the Pakistani rupee collapsed from 150 to 300 per US dollar. A 100% currency devaluation. Petrol/Gasoline prices rose to 272 rupees per liter. Pakistan smuggles approximately $1.02 billion worth of Iranian oil annually, representing 14% of its fuel consumption. Around 2,000 vehicles smuggle 5-6 million liters daily into Pakistan. This state of economy does not affect the state narrative.
The announcements accelerate while the currency collapses. Each “discovery” promises wealth transformation while actual purchasing power halves.
After epistemic collapse, societies lose the ability to track claims over time, demand follow-up on previous announcements, or notice patterns of repeated “breakthroughs” that lead nowhere. The last announcement becomes the event. Whether resources ever reach market becomes irrelevant.
## Elite Lose Calibration
Hina Rabbani Khar served as Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and later as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. She had education from University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA.
In a 2025 debate on a UK news platform with journalist Barkha Dutt, she claimed Operation Sindoor constituted “extrajudicial killings” by India. She demanded India present evidence to international courts. When pressed about Pakistan’s decades of cross-border terrorism, the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai, and harboring of internationally designated terrorists, she deflected or claimed ignorance.
This is not about misspeaking under pressure. It is about operating in a reality where Pakistan is perpetual victim and India is perpetual aggressor, despite international consensus and documented evidence to the contrary.
Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s Defence Minister, was interviewed after Operation Sindoor. He claimed Pakistan had shot down six Indian aircraft. When asked for proof, he repeatedly stated: “It is on social media.” He did not rely on military intelligence. Not government documentation. Not independent verification but Social media.
These are not street-level conspiracy theorists. These are cabinet ministers representing Pakistan internationally, speaking to credible journalists on major platforms.
When the Defence Minister cites social media as evidence for military claims, the distinction between verified intelligence, government documentation, independent confirmation, and random social media posts has completely dissolved.
## The Real Gold Is in Litigation
Reko Diq, located in Balochistan, is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits. It contains proven reserves worth approximately $60-74 billion, with a potential mine life exceeding 50 years.
In 2006, Pakistan’s government awarded a mining lease to Tethyan Copper Company, a joint venture between Barrick Gold and Antofagasta plc. The companies committed to investing more than $3 billion in initial capital.
In 2011, Pakistan’s Supreme Court cancelled the mining lease.
Tethyan filed arbitration with the World Bank’s International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. In 2017, the tribunal ruled that Pakistan had violated its bilateral investment treaty with Australia. In 2019, Pakistan was ordered to pay $5.8 billion in damages.
This is the pattern identified in Part 2: “Pakistan is a terrain which is ruled by Military but enforced by power. Who wields this power is a matter of practical detail which is a variation which changes frequently.”
The government awarded the contract. The court cancelled it. Neither institution could provide stability or predictability. The result: $3 billion investment destroyed, international arbitration loss, and Pakistan’s credibility in mining sector shattered.
Real projects require consistent power structures, contract enforcement, multi-year stability, and rule of law. Fake announcements require nothing. Therefore, social media announcements of Rs800 billion gold discoveries circulate freely. No international mining companies. No capital commitments. No actual extraction. Just announcements.
Pakistan rejected real, verified, world-class mineral deposits with international investors ready to invest billions. It continues announcing imaginary discoveries that will “make every Pakistani rich.”
After epistemic collapse, the fake announcement that costs nothing is preferred over the real project that requires institutional function.
## The Rare Earths
Rare earth is the new Oil. The ‘Rare’ here does not mean that these elements are scarce. The ‘Rare’ is the process by which it is derived. The metals are found along with other other products mined. It is available with coal, copper, bauxite etc but to separate it from other metal requires advanced technology. China has mastered this technology.
In October 2025, Pakistan sent what was described as its “first shipment” of rare earth elements to US Strategic Metals in Missouri. The shipment reportedly contained antimony, copper concentrate, neodymium, and praseodymium.
Soon a $500 million partnership was announced. President Trump celebrated Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” and mineral wealth. He also posted that Pakistan might someday sell oil to India.
China’s Foreign Ministry responded that reports of Pakistan gifting rare earth samples to the United States were “groundless.” Spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the minerals presented by Pakistani leaders were “raw gemstone samples purchased by staff members.”
There are three possibilities which may explain this:
First, China could be lying to cover embarrassment. Second, Pakistan sent gemstones and claimed they were rare earths. Third, someone in the chain misidentified gemstones as rare earth samples.
All three possibilities demonstrate epistemic collapse. Either major powers cannot maintain truthful discourse about Pakistan’s claims, or Pakistan convinced both US Strategic Metals and Trump’s administration that gemstones were rare earths, or no one in the verification chain could distinguish between them.
Trump believed Pakistan’s mineral wealth for the same reason Kasab believed Indian Muslims were oppressed: claims circulate, get repeated, become “fact” regardless of contradictory evidence.
The ‘bhang’ has crossed the ocean.
## The Biological Dimension
A 2017 study found that nearly 50% of Pakistanis, especially youth, have faced mental health challenges. Pakistan records nearly 8,000 suicides annually.
In another study in 2025, the World Health Organization reported that 34% of Pakistan’s population that is approximately 67 million people, suffers from mental illness. This ranges from anxiety and depression to severe conditions like schizophrenia.
The country has only 5,000 trained psychiatrists for a population of 240.5 million people. They are concentrated in urban areas. Rural populations remain critically underserved.
Mental health issues are often dismissed as superstitions or personal weaknesses rather than recognized as medical conditions. Stigma prevents individuals from seeking help.
This creates a society where one-third of the population has untreated mental illness affecting their capacity to process information and distinguish reality from falsehood. But the crisis runs deeper.
Approximately 60% of all marriages in Pakistan are consanguineous that is between individuals who share a common ancestor. Nearly 80% of these are between first cousins.
From a genetic standpoint, cousin marriages double the risk of passing on autosomal recessive disorders. Conditions such as thalassemia, cystic fibrosis, congenital deafness, metabolic disorders, and intellectual disabilities are far more common in children born to consanguineous couples.
The risk of birth defects in children of first cousins is 6-7%, compared to 3-4% in unrelated couples. This risk doubles again if cousin marriages persist across generations.
Infant mortality rates are significantly higher, up to 12%, in consanguineous unions compared to non-consanguineous ones.
When 60% of marriages are between cousins, and this pattern repeats across generations, the cumulative effect on population-level cognitive capacity becomes substantial.
Studies estimate that genetic counseling services are nearly non-existent in public hospitals and rarely affordable in private clinics. There is minimal awareness of genetic risks. Even when complications arise, they are often attributed to fate or divine will rather than biology.
## The Convergence
The epistemic collapse is not singular. It is the convergence of multiple failures:
Educational infrastructure that systematically teaches falsehoods. Mental health crisis affecting 34% of the population with virtually no treatment infrastructure. Genetic risks compounding across generations through 60% consanguineous marriage rates. Cultural stigma preventing acknowledgment of these problems. Institutional fragmentation where power shifts unpredictably between military, judiciary, and executive. Media that romanticizes harmful practices and amplifies false claims.
When you poison the education system, leave one-third of the population mentally ill without treatment, allow genetic risks to compound across generations, stigmatize seeking help, fragment institutional authority, and amplify false narratives through media—you create a society that has lost the collective cognitive infrastructure to process reality.
Kasab could not process that Muslims pray freely in India because his education planted lies, he may have had untreated mental health issues, he potentially came from multigenerational cousin marriages, and no institution existed to provide accurate information.
Pakistani citizens cannot question repeated “discovery” announcements because the same convergence has destroyed population-level reality testing.
## The Contagion
The epistemic collapse does not remain contained. It spreads through the global information ecosystem.
Trump announces Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” despite Pakistan having 353.5 million barrels of proven reserves, barely enough to cover less than two years of consumption. Meanwhile, Pakistan is smuggling $1 billion in Iranian oil annually to make the ends meet.
International analysis treats sample shipments of questionable composition as “strategic breakthrough.” The $500 million partnership announcement circulates despite no clarity on financing, legal structure, or execution timeline.
When a society that has lost the capacity to process reality exports confusion into global systems that depend on accurate information for decision-making.
The bhang in the ground well does not stay in the well. It seeps into groundwater, spreads through irrigation channels, and eventually contaminates distant reservoirs.
## Conclusion
Cognitive collapse is not reversible through policy reform or international intervention. The damage operates at population scale, compounds across generations, and is reinforced by every institution from education to media to family structure.
When Ajmal Kasab saw Muslims praying freely, his entire worldview collapsed. But he had already murdered innocent people based on the lie. The shock of truth came too late.
After epistemic collapse, there is no fact-checking, no accountability, no institutional correction. There is only the endless circulation of claims that never connect to physical reality.
*The water well is poisoned. The society drinks anyway. And the contagion spreads.
*
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**References:**
1. Rakesh Maria, *Let Me Say It Now: A Memoir* (Westland Publications, 2020)
2. [USCIRF Report: Teaching Intolerance in Pakistan](https://www.uscirf.gov/publications/teaching-intolerance-pakistan-religious-bias-public-school-textbooks)
3. [Reko Diq Arbitration Case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reko_Diq_case)
4. [Barrick Gold ICSID Decision, March 21, 2017](https://www.barrick.com)
5. [Pakistan Mental Health Crisis](https://nation.com.pk/2025/02/15/growing-mental-health-crisis-in-pakistan/)
6. [Cousin Marriages in Pakistan: A Doctor’s Perspective](https://leadpakistan.com.pk/cousin-marriages-in-pakistan/)
7. [China Response on Rare Earth Claims](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-10-28/China-says-reports-of-Pakistan-gifting-rare-earth-samples-to-U-S–are-baseless)
8. [Pakistan-U.S. Rare Earth Partnership Analysis](https://www.sfa-oxford.com/pakistan-u-s-rare-earth-partnership/)
9. Trump Truth Social posts, October 2025
10. Dawn News, various reports 2019-2025 on oil and mineral discoveries
11. [Oil Discovery in Sindh in 2025](https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-strikes-new-oil-and-gas-reserves-in-punjab-1.500262464)
12. [Gas/LNG Found in Territorial Water in 2024](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/massive-oil-gas-reserves-found-in-pakistani-waters-report/articleshow/113143468.cms)
13. [Trump is all gas and Pakistan has no oil](https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/donald-trump-sold-on-pakistan-oil-deal-where-is-reserves-petrol-imran-khan-cryptocurrency-tariff-india-2764337-2025-07-31)