(Part 4)
Who Will Administer Venezuela?
Machado Excluded!
Machado can’t participate in transition of Venezuela because she’s not running things. She can’t run things because America won’t work with her. The impossibility is built into the condition.
Rubio praises Machado personally. Calls her “fantastic.” Says he’s known her for fifteen years. Acknowledges that her movement in Venezuela has popular support. Then dismisses all of this as irrelevant because “the vast majority of the opposition is no longer present inside of Venezuela.”
This is circular logic designed to exclude her. Why isn’t the opposition present inside Venezuela? Because Maduro’s regime forced them into exile or imprisoned them. But now Rubio uses their absence as justification for not working with them.
What Rubio is actually saying: we will work with whoever controls the military and police apparatus right now. That’s Rodriguez and the existing security structure. Not because they’re legitimate or democratic, but because they’re there and can be coerced through holding Maduro hostage.
Thus USA has no practical plan to govern, just leverage over whoever currently holds administrative control of Venezuela. The opposition that fought Maduro for years is now told to wait while America negotiates with Maduro’s own vice president.
Plan Is the Lack of It.
America has no plan to run Venezuela administratively. They’re negotiating with whoever holds power through threat and leverage. Rodriguez cooperates or Maduro suffers. The military cooperates or oil sanctions continue. The actual opposition with popular support is irrelevant.
Rubio’s focus is purely transactional: stop drug trafficking (that serves US interests), remove Iranian and Chinese presence (that threatens US interests), control oil pricing (that serves US shale producers). Elections and democracy are “premature” and can wait indefinitely.
The telling phrase is “we all wish to see a bright future for Venezuela, a transition to democracy… but what we’re talking about is what happens over the next two, three weeks, two, three months.” Translation: indefinite delay of any actual democratic process while American economic interests are secured.
This is extraction, not liberation. Machado is already excluded because she represents Venezuelan self-determination. America prefers coerced cooperation from existing power structures over genuine popular government.
Whoever controls Venezuela has the power, and America can’t do daily stealth raids. Rodriguez or any successor could tell America to leave. Maduro is now expendable to both sides.
But what if this wasn’t improvisation at all?
Theory of Swap Plan
Theory is that this is has been planned for five years. The Venezuela operation isn’t improvised desperation. It’s execution of a deal that Democrats tried to expose and prevent in 2019.
In 2019 Fiona Hill testified. But she denied that Trump was ceding Ukraine to Putin in exchange for something. That something now appears to be Venezuela. Thus, the narrative was that Ukraine will go to Russia and Venezuela to America. This was an alleged deal between Putin and Trump.
But if Trump and Putin had discussed swapping spheres of influence, then this operation isn’t just about oil prices or drug trafficking. It’s about enforcing a grand bargain.
Putin gets Ukraine without American interference. Trump gets Venezuela without Russian interference. The Anchorage summit with red carpets and fighter jets wasn’t just theater. It was consummation of a deal that’s been discussed since 2019. This explains several anomalies:
First, Russia’s muted response to Venezuela. No emergency Security Council sessions. No threats of retaliation. Just mild statements about sovereignty. Because Russia already agreed to stay out.
Second, why Trump felt confident doing this operation now. He knows Russia won’t interfere militarily or provide Venezuela with meaningful support. The deal is in place.
Third, why there’s no real plan for governing Venezuela. America doesn’t need to govern it. They just need to control resource extraction and prevent other adversaries from using it. Russia’s absence is the guarantee, not American administrative capacity.
Fourth, the timing. Ukraine situation is reaching some form of resolution. Russia is consolidating control. Now Trump moves on Venezuela because his side of the bargain comes due.
Fifth, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) expressed “deep concern” over the US military strikes and capture of Venezuelan President. The response avoids directly naming the US or condemning the strikes, adopting a neutral tone focused on de-escalation. India has very little trade with Venezuela since 2019 after sanctions were imposed on Venezuela, by the Trump administration. The muted response suggests India understands there’s a larger arrangement in play, possibly the Russia-US deal.
China Angle
All eyes must now be on China. This operation has disrupted the Chinese oil supply which was being made by Venezuela in Chinese currency, Renminbi. Payments occur via yuan accounts in China, shielding transactions from US oversight. China is holding $19 billion in outstanding loans tied to Venezuelan oil.
China, a major buyer using “ghost ships” to evade sanctions, faces added risks from US sanctions on related Chinese firms and vessels. Tanker blockades and seizures that halved shipments to about 475,000 barrels per day from 950,000 in November 2025.
It may be noted that USA has not hit the oil facilities of Venezuela. PDVSA is free to produce but not free to distribute due to blockade around Venezuela.
Even if Russia stays out per the deal, China hasn’t agreed to anything. Neither has Cuba, which Rubio admits controls Venezuela’s internal security. Venezuelan military factions too have not agreed to the USA who might prefer Chinese investment to American extraction.
So Trump has cleared Russian interference through the swap. But he still faces the practical problem: who actually runs Venezuela?
Rodriguez can theoretically tell America to leave because Maduro is expendable now. Some military officer could stage a coup, announce nationalization of oil, and invites Chinese protection instead.
The swap with Putin solves the geopolitical chess problem but not the ground reality problem. Russia won’t help Venezuela resist American pressure. But that doesn’t mean America can successfully extract resources or install compliant government.
Trump swapped Ukraine for Venezuela with Putin. Now he’s collecting. But collecting requires finding that Pisciotta, and Putin’s noninterference doesn’t create one. The grand bargain is real. The implementation is still chaotic.
Whatever may happen inside Venezuela, this operation has changed the global politics forever.
References:
- Interview of Rubio: https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/01/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-kristen-welker-of-nbcs-meet-the-press
- Legality of Operation: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/us/politics/maduro-venezuela-trump-legal-issues.html
- Impeachment hearing: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/21/politics/hill-holmes-hearing-takeaways
- Fiona Hills: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5457329-trump-has-completely-ceded-narrative-control-to-putin-fiona-hill/
- India and Venezuela: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/us-strikes-venezuela-why-india-is-largely-insulated-from-the-shock/articleshow/126331883.cms
- PVSDA is safe: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-pdvsa-suffered-no-damage-us-attacks-sources-2026-01-03/