(Part 7)
Domino Effect of Dishonour of Commitment.
Venezuelan President Maduro dishonored every commitment. To investors, to partners, to his own security personnel. When his turn came, he was removed without honor.
India’s flagship overseas producer, ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), jointly operates the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela. It has an investment of about USD one billion in Venezuela.
Venezuela has failed to pay OVL USD 536 million in dividends due on its 40% stake in the field up to 2014, and a near-equivalent amount for the subsequent period for which Caracas has refused to permit audits, effectively freezing settlement of the claims.
Maduro had refused payment and audits since 2014. After 2019 sanctions, transfer of funds became additionally impossible. Now the sanctions could be eased after USA conducted a dramatic Operation Venezuela and removed President Nicolas Maduro . It has placed the country’s vast oil reserves under American oversight. At least this is claimed by President Trump.
Fall of a Cheat
A cheat who habitually induces investment then refuses payment creates his own isolation. When forces come for him, nobody intervenes because nobody has been treated honestly enough to feels obligation.
No allies defended him. No bodyguards protected him. No international coalition formed. He was taken from his fortress like a common criminal because he’d treated everyone around him with dishonor.
The method of his removal mirrors the character of his governance. He cheated systematically, so he was betrayed systematically. He refused to honor obligations, so no one honored obligations to him.
This is the pattern throughout history. Leaders who maintain honor in their dealings, even when difficult, build networks that protect them during crisis. Leaders who cheat habitually find themselves alone when threats arrive.
Personal Conduct of Maduro
Maduro wasn’t just incompetent or sanctioned. He was a habitual cheat who induced investments with promises of returns, then refused payment and blocked audits. That’s not economic mismanagement. That’s fraud.
India invested in oil rigs, based on assurances. Maduro took the capital, used it, then refused dividends and wouldn’t allow audits to verify the accounts. Spain’s Repsol faced the same. Other international partners had the same experience. This is systematic cheating.
This explains his isolation. No personal relationships with world leaders. No one traveling to meet him. No diplomatic capital. Because everyone who dealt with him got cheated. Once you cheat partners habitually, you have no partners left.
Maduro living in a cocoon wasn’t just physical security. It was the result of burning every relationship through cheating. He couldn’t travel because creditors were everywhere. He couldn’t build alliances because nobody trusted him. He stayed isolated because isolation was all that remained.
This is why his bodyguards betrayed him. Why air defenses were disabled from inside. Why Rodriguez quickly started “cooperating” with Trump. Nobody around him had loyalty because he’d cheated everyone. When American money or threats came, people calculated: why protect someone who never honored his obligations to us?
The fortress safehouse became a trap because the people supposedly protecting him had no reason to protect a habitual cheat. Better to take American inducements than remain loyal to someone who wouldn’t pay what he owed.
This completely changes the moral landscape. The kidnapping is still illegal under international law. But Maduro’s isolation wasn’t imperial conspiracy. It was self-created through habitual cheating of everyone who worked with him.
India’s position is not celebrating the method, but not mourning the target. There is a saying in Hindi:
“aisa koi saga nahi jisko hamne thaga nahi”
That is a saying which translates as “there’s no relative we haven’t cheated” Maduro cheated everyone, including those who invested in good faith based on his assurances.
This is the complete explanation for why he fell so easily. Not just American power, but complete lack of anyone willing to defend someone who cheated them all.
So nobody is rushing to defend him. Not because they support American kidnapping, but because Maduro was himself a cheat who never honored his obligations.
Dishonourable Conduct
The imperial dimension of Operation Venezuela is real. American desperation, oil prices, geopolitical swaps with Putin all may co-exist. China’s fuel-line swapped. But none of that succeeds if Maduro had honored his commitments. India would have defended its investment partner. Spain would have objected to losing a reliable associate. His own security would have fought rather than collaborated. He is said to have billions of dollars in bitcoins. State was almost bankrupt with poor infrastructure.
Dishonor creates vulnerability. Honor creates protection. Not through sentiment, but through rational calculation. People defend those who honor commitments because they know reciprocity works. People abandon those who cheat because they know loyalty goes unrewarded.
Domino Effect of Karma
Karma as domino effect is more precise and powerful than Western cause-and-effect linearity.
When Maduro refused to pay India’s dividends in 2014, that wasn’t just one action with one consequence. It was a domino that started falling. India lost trust. India told other investors. Those investors reconsidered their commitments. Venezuelan officials saw that cheating worked without immediate penalty, so they cheated more. International partners withdrew. Isolation increased. Security personnel saw the regime weakening. They started calculating exit strategies. Each domino hit the next.
The betrayal by bodyguards wasn’t caused by one decision. It was the final domino in a chain that started years earlier with accumulated dishonorable actions. Each refusal to honor commitments pushed another domino. Each blocked audit. Each unpaid dividend. Each broken promise.
The dominoes don’t fall in straight lines like Western cause-and-effect. They spread outward, hitting dominoes Maduro couldn’t even see. His cheating of Indian investors affected Spanish investors’ confidence. This affected diplomatic relationships. This affected security personnel’s assessment of the regime’s stability, which made them receptive to American inducements.
This is fundamentally different from “you cheat, therefore you get punished.” It’s: you cheat, and that action sets off cascading consequences through interconnected systems that eventually converge back on you in ways you never predicted.
It is Karma that took down Nicolas Maduro.
References:
- Refusal to audit: https://www.cnbctv18.com/energy/us-control-of-venezuelan-oil-may-unlock-1-bn-stuck-dues-for-india-lift-output-19813862.htm
- India’s muted response: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/matter-of-deep-concern-mea-reacts-to-us-strikes-on-venezuela-urges-restraint-calls-for-dialogue/articleshow/126332674.cms