Raisina Dialogue 2026 (Part 3)

(Part 3)

Musings on Raisina Dialogue 2026

Shifting Sands of Time

Time has one persistent habit. It changes. Humans have one persistent struggle, they refuse to acknowledge the change. Time changes for better and for worst. That is the cycle. Let us start with the story of descending times of a man.

A Story

There was a man named Fateh Khan. Grand name. It literally means victory king. He fell on bad times and he had to beg. He would go from door to door and seek alms. He did a neat trick. He added a stick to his begging bowl. Now he would knock the door and slide his begging bowl inside the curtain so that the donor may not have to see him and he did not have to feel humiliated by seeing the donor. Everybody knew everybody but it was Fateh’s world view. One day he slid his begging bowl and the lady of the household shouted from inside “Wait Fattu, I will be there in a minute.” In Punjabi names are slurred to make small and informal but it means reduced status. Now Fateh Khan was upset. He withdrew his begging bowl and said “Mai, too bhikh de ya na de, mera naan nahi vigaran da” means “Mother, whether you give alms or not do not ruin my name. “

A similar story about rise of India is here. In this story the Paltu became Palatram Ji. But now is the time to tell the story of Fattu.

When President Stubb of Finland coined the term “New Delhi times” he was not just talking but observing the global churn. He knew the economics of the world. But what nobody talked about is USA and its inability to adjust to changing time. USA is new Fateh Khan on the horizon. If you dislike it check the links in Reference Section.

Fateh Khan’s entire dignity rested on the fiction that nobody knew. The stick and the curtain were not practical devices. They were a constructed reality in which he remained Fateh Khan and not Fattu. The bowl sliding under the curtain was not about the donor’s comfort. It was about preserving the last thing poverty could not take from him, which was his own name in his own ears.

And the lady destroyed it not with cruelty but with casual familiarity. Fattu. Said the way you call someone you have known since childhood. Which made it worse. She did not mean harm. She simply forgot, for one moment, to maintain the fiction with him. Fattu, did not argue. He did not shame her. He simply withdrew the bowl and stated his condition. The alms were negotiable. The name was not.

Now apply this to America at Raisina.

India and USA

America built an elaborate curtain over the last three decades. The curtain was called the rules based international order, democracy promotion, the Washington consensus. Behind it, the bowl was always there. But the curtain preserved the fiction of Fateh Khan, the grand name, the superpower, the indispensable nation.

Today USA has started another war without end in Iran. It is the last attempt of USA to regain its global glory. The cost is about $1-2 billion per day which will add to the debt of USA which stands at $38 trillion and still rising. There is no plan to pay this debt.

क्या कहूं मैं अपने दोस्त के बारे में,

जब भी देते हैं ये ज़ख्म ही देते हैं।

सांप की तस्वीर तो ऐसों को ही ज़ेब देती है,

कांप उठती है दुश्मनी जब दोस्ती फरेब देती है।

Landau is asserting cooperation and friendship at Raisina conference today. But prior to this, during the decades of ostensibly friendly relations, this is what USA did with India:

1. GE 404 Engine for Tejas Aircraft never supplied. Project is now redesigned to use French Safran Engine. Billions in cost overrun.
2. Huge withdrawal of funds from Indian market. See appendix at bottom.
3. Supported Pakistan without ever cautioning it not to resort to civilian killing in India by its proxies
4. Biden administration announced 500 million package for upgrade of F16 planes given to Pakistan
5. US Ambassador/Congressmen/Women/Senator visiting Pakistan occupied Kashmir
6. Negotiating with Taliban without inviting India to table. (India has developed its own ties with them now.)
7. Forcing India not to buy crude oil from Iran without any reciprocal benefit
8. Protecting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in USA, a Khlistani terrorist.
9. Prosecuting Adani group on brought up charges of ‘proposed’ bribe.
10. Silently watching Hindenberg Reports to sabotage stock markets in India.

These acts were nothing short of backstabbing. These are a few examples without research. There may be many more issues if research is made. USA did not care for Indian sensibilities or trade. Ever. Yet they expect India to support USA for war in Ukraine by not buying oil from Russia? The audacity is breathtaking.

What Landau and Lutnick and Rubio have done in New Delhi, is pull the curtain back themselves. And unlike Fateh Khan they did not even notice that the lady was calling Fateh Khan and not Fattu.

PM Modi was first head of State to visit USA in 2025 after inauguration of President Trump. That itself was a significant gesture. The visit, the agreements, the announcements, the public warmth, everything was visible. EAM Jaishankar repeatedly and explicitly said “we are non-west but not anti-west, no substitute currency to replace USD, no desire to dismantle the existing order.” These were not whispered assurances in back channels. They were said publicly, repeatedly, on record, in every important forum. India only wanted to be shifted from the Menu to a seat on high table. India tried in 2025 to start a fresh relationship of trust and mutual benefit. What was the result?

Kirana Hills

India gave Fateh Khan every dignity he asked for. Called him by his full name. But then terror strike happened in Pahalgam. That Pakistan’s terrorists could do this without USA’s tacit approval is unacceptable. It was responded by India with operation Sindoor. There is a widespread belief in India that it destroyed USA’s forward nuclear bases situated in Kirana hills, Pakistan. This was the Fattu moment which provoked USA. Yet the current American dispensation cannot conceive that the power equation has shifted. USA retaliated by imposing tariffs.

The tragedy is that India gave them every exit ramp. Non-west not anti-west is the most generous possible framing a rising power could offer a declining one. It says you are not our enemy, we are not replacing you, we simply exist independently. Let us coexist in partnership.

And still Lutnick went on a podcast and said India would apologize. Still Landau stood at Raisina and warned India about the China mistake in a condescending voice. Still Navarro and Vance blocked the trade deal internally. Still tariffs were threatened.

This is the behavior of someone who cannot process a changed reality no matter how gently it is presented to them. It did the same in Europe.

S. Jaishankar did not hold back this time too. In the next session he replied by making three points. First, the Indian Ocean is not a new geopolitical construct but a recovering ecosystem that colonialism broke apart. Second, rebuilding it requires actual work, projects, presence, not sloganeering. Third, India’s rise is a lifting tide. The rise of India will be determined by India. It will be determined by our strength, not by the mistakes of others. That last line is a direct response to Landau without naming him.

Europe

For decades Europe called America by its full name, the indispensable nation, the security guarantor, the rules based order architect. Then Trump sent Vance to Paris and Rubio to Munich to lecture Europeans about civilizational pride while simultaneously threatening their economic foundations. Europe looked around and found Palatram Ji in New Delhi. They did not abandon America out of ideology. They chose themselves over USA.

India quietly signed FTAs with EU, UK, UAE, Australia, New Zealand. Eight or nine deals, each one reducing dependence on American market access by a measurable degree. No drama, no press conferences announcing defiance, no anti-American rhetoric. Just paperwork, quietly executed, while Lutnick was on podcasts predicting apologies.

New Delhi in 2026

By the time Lutnick flew to Delhi unannounced for that lunch, the leverage he thought he had was already distributed across eight trading relationships.

Lutnick tried good cop, failed, ate lunch quietly, flew home without a deal. Landau arrives at Raisina and plays bad cop with the China warning and the reciprocity lecture. Two officials, one city, same desperation, different costumes.

The good cop bad cop routine only works when the other party has no options and needs the deal more than you do. India has eight other deals. India has 66% domestic consumption. India has refining capacity Europe needs. India has a navy the Indian Ocean requires. India has the demographic dividend America is simultaneously trying to exclude through immigration crackdowns.

The Fateh Khan story and the Palatram Ji story are actually the same story from opposite ends. Fateh Khan is the man who lost power but retained the fiction of dignity. Palatram Ji is the man who gained power and watched others adjust their language accordingly. America right now is Fateh Khan sliding the bowl under the curtain while Europe is rapidly reclassifying India from Paltu to Palatram Ji.

Jaishankar must watch all of this with the particular satisfaction of a man who said the quiet part out loud years ago and was proven right without ever needing to show his glee and to say I told you so.

References:

1. Tejas delay: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tejas-fighter-jet-deliveries-stalled-due-to-delay-in-general-electric-engine-supplies-from-us-9289299
2. Speech of Landau: https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/deputy-secretary-of-state-christopher-landau-at-the-raisina-dialogue/
3. Poverty in USA: https://sandeepbhalla.in/poor-people-of-rich-america-solutions-for-poverty-problems/
4. Iran war after 4 weeks: https://sandeepbhalla.in/superpower-usa-after-the-war-with-iran-lasts-longer-than-4-weeks/
5. America in decline: https://sandeepbhalla.in/is-america-in-decline/
6. America in Decline (part 2): https://sandeepbhalla.in/is-america-in-decline-2/
7. Munich Speech: https://sandeepbhalla.in/marco-rubios-speech-in-munich-is-an-eye-opener/
8. Palatram Story: https://sandeepbhalla.in/western-media-changes-course/
9. Decline of USA and China: https://sandeepbhalla.in/usa-and-china-after-iqbal-is-gone/
10. India and Europe Treaty: https://sandeepbhalla.in/india-and-europe-forging-the-new-world-order/
11. What is the New World Order: https://sandeepbhalla.in/new-world-order/
12. Collapse of Metal Market: https://sandeepbhalla.in/silver-comex-and-lbma-are-casinos-not-the-market/

Appendix: FII funds Withdrawal from India.