(Part 2)
Attack on Iran
On 28 February 2026, the operation Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the USA was launched against Iran. It targeted key officials, military commanders, and facilities. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Shia Islam, along with an entire top rung of leaders were killed in attack. A leadership council has taken over governance of Iran.
On March 1, 2026, Iran started retaliation using drones and ballistic missiles across the Persian Gulf. It started missile barrages targeting military sites and cities like West Jerusalem; some broke through defenses.
It targeted United States bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain (including Fifth Fleet HQ), Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE, e.g., Port of Jebel Ali and airports). But most of its missile landed in civilian area. On the US side, CENTCOM confirmed three American service members killed and at least five seriously wounded.
The war continues with no sign of abatement. Missiles are being fired from both sides. USA claims to have destroyed several ships of Iran alongwith its Naval Base.
Global Response
As predicted, India, China, and Russia have issued a measured response. They expressed “deep concern” over developments, urging restraint, civilian safety, dialogue, and respect for sovereignty without directly condemning the strikes or naming parties involved.
China condemned the strikes as a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and international law, demanding an immediate ceasefire, civilian protection, and diplomatic resolution.
Russia labeled the assassination “state terrorism,” vowed military-technical support to Iran. All rhetoric but no action on the ground.
Objectives of War
Various sources, including President Trump, have articulated various objectives but the real objectives appear to be as follows:
- Consolidation of USA’s position in Oil Trade.
- To stop nuclear program of Iran.
- To dismantle its ballistic missile and naval forces, eliminate threats from Iranian proxies (Axis of Resistance),
- Depose the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei. With successful strike on 28 February 2026 and killing of Khamenei, the last objective is partially achieved but if the successor continue the policies of Khamenei, then the success will be doubtful.
The oil prices have shot up and are touching $70 at present. Strait of Hormuz is closed. Houthis have warned of attacks in Red Sea. Hope that it consolidates the position in favour of USA.
We have no information about the fate of Iran’s nuclear program which USA had claimed to have destroyed months ago in Operation Hammer. USA allegedly destroyed three key nuclear facilities in Iran on June 22, 2025. Yet here we are.
Development on Ground
Regime toppling through air power alone has no modern precedent of success except in Venezuela if that can be called a success. The strategic logic of “decapitate leadership, foster internal collapse” is historically fragile. Again USA need a collaborator inside Iran similar to Rodrique who helped topple Venezuela and is now the president of Venezuela. However it may be noted that, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard structure is deliberately decentralised to precisely handle such situation.
Decapitation of Leadership in Iran alongwith overwhelming airpower creates a rational incentive for the surviving Iranian leadership to fold fast. No new Supreme Leader changes the physics of B-2 bombers or the vulnerability of every remaining missile site. That calculus is correct.
As per reports, Iran had agreed to Oman to comply. If Iran had already agreed to no enriched uranium stockpiling and full IAEA verification hours before bombs fell, then Iran was not an intransigent actor requiring military coercion. A regime that capitulates after agreeing to terms and then getting bombed anyway signals to its domestic audience, its Revolutionary Guard, and every watching government that surrender produces bombs, not peace. The other view is that Oman concession may have been tactical delay, not genuine capitulation. In any case we are past that event.
How Long the War Will Continue?
This is the billion dollar question today and answer does not seem easy. For an ordinary war-gaming analysis, the regime change itself should have produced the result but so far there is no signal.
The normal Westphalian logic does not apply to Iran. The normal states negotiate, states fear destruction and states choose survival. This logic does not apply to a theocratic martyrdom culture in Iran at the leadership level.
President Trump has given a time frame of four week for completion of objectives of war. This seems to be an attrition trap, not a completion promise. Draw out Iran’s remaining missile stocks, force them to reveal hidden launch sites through use, then destroy them.
USA will hope for uprising in provinces like Khuzestan which is Arab-populated, oil-rich, and situated in southwestern Iran. Balochistan is the southeastern border with Pakistan too has genuine grievance history. But without boots on the ground it remains a remote possibility without any tangible result in a short time frame.
So the war will continue. Retaliation will also continue. Every launch reveals a location. Every location gets destroyed. The attrition asymmetry here strongly favours the US-Israeli side in a way it never did in Ukraine.
The challenge will be Congressional fatigue, oil price shocks disrupting domestic US economy, carrier deployment strain etc. But these are the real prolongation risks, not Iranian military resilience.
If surrender does not happens in next 48 hours, we should prepare for a long haul of this war. There it may have similarity with Ukraine but for entirely different reasons.
References:
- Will the War with Iran become World War 3? https://sandeepbhalla.in/willis-the-war-with-iran-become-world-war-3/
- Report about 1 March 2026 events: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-israel-supreme-leader-khamenei-funeral-day-2/
- Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/trump-talks-of-annihilation-elimination-as-us-israel-attack-iran
- President Trump: