Who Won the War Between USA and Iran
Iran lost all the battles by failing to prevent the airstrikes by USA. Yet it won the war by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. It chocked the world economy. It made President Trump so desperate that he used ‘b’ and ‘f’ words for Iran, on his truth social. Strait of Hormuz would now be trump of Iran. It can choke it at will. Meanwhile, it is realizing toll of upto $2 per barrel, depending upon the friendliness of passing ships. Now it is claimed by all the parties that they will halt the war. But how do they get there? Let me recapitulate.
Revisiting the Past
On 28 February the war was started by USA and Israel by attacking the leadership of Iran. About 50 top leaders of Iran, including Ayatollah Khamenei were killed. Soon there was clutter on social media as to whether this will become a World War. But that was far fetched as explained earlier. Within a week of start of war, it was predicted that this war will not continue beyond four weeks. Since the airstrikes on Iran were carried out in June 2025 to destroy its nuclear capability, the continuation of present strikes, after killing top leadership, appear dubious. The war was started in a barbarian manner and it was clear from the beginning the no rules of morality or fairness will apply.
There were two possible motives for this war. One was to redraw the map by disintegrating the Iran, as suggested by Ralph Peter, discussed here. The second was the economic compulsion for the USA, which inspite of cost of war, gained tremendous economic advantage.
Iran responded by blocking the strait of Hormuz and the real surprise was the ‘surprise of USA’. Now USA started the wait and threaten game at the strait of Hormuz. All other European/Nato allies rejected the invitation to join USA in war. Thereafter Trump called Modi on telephone but without any consequence. The war became a game of poker by the end of the month.
Desperation grew and President Trump said to the world ‘Go get your own oil.’ This one sentence ended the status of USA as the sole hegemonic power. The Trump perhaps realised this. In his televised speech of April 1, 2026, President Trump renewed his vow to clear the strait of Hormuz.
Next day, USA fired its Army Chief of Staff by a publicly communicated message. My analysis was that it was to hide something sinister. It was partially correct. USA then tried a GI Joe like ground invasion. Meanwhile the Deadlock with Iran continued as it refused to accept the receivership of USA on its oil and revenue like Iraq and Venezuela.
Operation GI Joe
On April 3, an F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iranian territory. One crew member was rescued quickly. The other, a colonel, spent over 24 hours in the mountains while hundreds of IRGC soldiers closed in.
Another view was that it was a botched mission to detect and recover the enriched Uranium from Iran. This view is corroborated by location of landing of aircraft near Isfahan. It is alleged that it was later sold as a daring rescue. However, neither theory changes the ground reality that the terrain is unfit even with most advanced equipment of USA.
Commandos scaled a 7,000-foot ridge in darkness. CIA ran a deception campaign to confuse Iranian forces about where the airman was. Over 150 aircraft provided cover. The colonel was pulled out before dawn.
The price:
Two MC-130s stuck in Iranian soil/sand, were blasted to pieces on the ground. Four helicopters also destroyed to prevent capture. Two Black Hawks hit by Iranian fire. An A-10 Warthog downed. Six aircraft gone on terrain that was supposed to be, per the April 1 speech, essentially without air defence. Half a billion dollars worth assets, blasted with explosives.
The army chief sacked on April 2 owned the missile defence portfolio. He was gone before this operation began. He cannot now say what he flagged, what he refused, or what he knew. His testimony is discredited before it is given.
USA put boots on Iranian soil for hours, with maximum air cover, and lost half a billion dollars of equipment getting one man out. That is not a template for anything larger. It is the evidence that larger is impossible.
Tweet Diplomacy on Halting the War
One day after the President Trump hurled explicit cuss words on Iran, he announced ceasefire. This is his post on Truth Social:
“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Since President thanked Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif, this was his tweet:
“Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.”
Sharif’s tweet, when first posted, carried a header: “Draft – Pakistan’s PM Message on X.” It was edited within a minute. The header was gone. The rest stayed word for word.
That header did not say “draft for Prime Minister” as would be the case if somebody in PM Office drafted it. Mention of “Pakistan’s PM” means that the statement was prepared outside Pakistan. About diction, the phrase “strongly and powerfully” is not how Pakistani diplomats write or any diplomat writes. It is one specific American diction that too a favourite of President Trump to use superlatives.
The only inference is that someone in White House drafted it. Islamabad published it with header and then edited it. Washington cited it as independent validation for a decision already made.
This episode once again confirms the cognitive decline in Pakistan, as explained earlier. The Prime Minister of Pakistan can not even copy paste a tweet properly. USA could not anticipate this inefficiency. It shows that the epistemological failure has traveled to USA and settled there too.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi responded the same by issuing a statement from Tehran. (See picture.) His statement thanked Pakistan and Munir. It did not thank America. It recorded that POTUS had accepted the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations. As per Iran, Trump is the party who accepted terms offered by Iran.
Last two paragraphs of statement were drafted in Persian and passed through AI translation. A bilingual editor cleaned them up but not completely. What Iran actually wrote was harder than what the English version suggests. The Armed Forces of Iran will not attack if attacks on Iran stop immediately and unconditionally. Strait of Hormuz open to all, in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces, subject to technical limitations.
Iran does not need nuclear button. It has trump of Hormuz. It can open and control it at will. USA has signed at dotted lines. In two weeks, it is not likely to improve.
Conclusion
Iran lost every airstrike. Every leadership target hit. Every nuclear facility struck. Militarily, it was a rout. But that is on paper.
The Strait of Hormuz changed all of that. One chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil moves, and Iran held it for forty days while the world economy bled and an American president ran out of words strong enough and eventually reached for the ones that cannot be printed.
The ceasefire statements, read side by side, settle the question of who won. Trump announced Iran agreed to complete, immediate, safe opening of the strait. Iran announced its Armed Forces will grant safe passage via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces. One of these is the language of a victor. The other is the language of a sovereign exercising authority over its own waters.
The Islamabad talks begin Friday. The real deadlock, Iran’s refusal to let its oil revenues enter dollar-monitored channels the way Iraq’s did, Libya’s did, Afghanistan’s did, Venezuela’s did, that deadlock arrives at the table on day one. Two weeks will not move it. Two years may not move it.
Trump will find another occupation of mind. The pattern since January 2025 runs Ukraine, Gaza, Iran in rapid succession, each absorbing the news cycle before the previous one resolves. The Iran chapter closes not with a signed agreement but with silence. One morning the briefings stop leading with it.
Iran will still be there. Still holding the trump of Hormuz.
Reference:
- Truth Social post by Trump: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
- X Post by Iran: https://x.com/araghchi/status/2041655156215799821