Attempt to Unmount from Tiger.
It appears that President Trump has now called PM Narendra Modi to resolve the blockade of Strait of Hormuz. This is the tweet by PM Modi:
Received a call from President Trump and had a useful exchange of views on the situation in West Asia. India supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest. Ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, secure and accessible is essential for the whole world. We agreed to stay in touch regarding efforts towards peace and stability.
US ambassador to India has said that he can not reveal what transpired between two leaders on telephonic talk. So here we are trying to guess it through analysis.
Background
The Iran war began on February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other senior officials. One day earlier on 27 February 2026, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi said a “breakthrough” had been reached and Iran had agreed both to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full verification by the IAEA.
Iran retaliated with hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against Israel and US military bases across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. It is reported that ten American radars have been hit and USA was forced to seek replacement by shifting radars from other places like Korea. But their is not official confirmation.
Iran’s attack or critical installations of US bases stopped after President Trump talked to President Putin of Russia. I do not belive it is a coincidence. In any case the capability of Iran to make precision strikes on its own is extremely doubtful.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, causing severe oil market disruption globally. Inflation is rising all over the world with rising energy prices and falling production due to reduced supply.
In earlier article it was warned that both USA and Iran are playing a game of poker. USA is desperate to get out of the war but is unable to find an exit. It is like riding a tiger and attempt is to dismount without being eaten by tiger.
USA had ordered deployment of USS Tripoli with 2500 marines. Thereafter Iran fired a long distance missile to Chagos island 4000 km away where US has Diego Garcia army base. Now around 1,000 US soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to deploy to the region in coming days.
President Trump had publicly called upon the EU and NATO countries to deploy their ship to remove blockade of Strait of Hormuz but all have recused themselves citing flimsy reasons or none at all.
On last Friday that is 20 March 2026, President Trump gave last warning to Iran to remove blockade failing which us will attack all civilian power plants in Iran. It gave 48 hours for compliance. However next day President suspended citing fruitful negotiations with Iran without revealing the name of negotiator on behalf of Iran.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday 24 March 2026 retweeted a tweet by Pakistan Prime Minister offering to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey were passing messages between the US and Iran on Sunday. The proposed meeting in Islamabad involved Witkoff, Kushner and possibly Vance on the American side, with Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf representing Tehran. As per social media reports Whitkoff waited in Islamabad and when nobody from Iran turned up he took off in his private jet from Noor Khan base near Islamabad.
Interestingly, Iran has denied any negotiation or even talk with USA. Iran’s position was that friendly states had conveyed America’s request for talks, but Iran had not responded.
Search for off Ramp
When nothing else worked, President of USA called Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Normal framing is what the President Trump wants from Modi? But in my view the right question is what Prime Minister Modi can do or not do because in diplomacy the questions are irrelevant. The answers dictate questions. Answers often change the questioner itself. There are several factors to be considered.
The Timing
The call came after PM Modi made his statement in Parliament of India. He called closure of the Strait of Hormuz unacceptable. It is a direct threat to India’s energy security. So Modi is signaling to markets and the public that the government is managing it, without specifying how.
He made comparison with pandemic. He said we have survived pandemic and well get through this too. Modi signals long war Parliament on March 24 while trying to prepare domestic consensus. This is when Trump calls.
Previous Articles
On 14 march it was pointed out that in 1980 Thatcher understood Hormuz as the object to be protected. Yet the USA operation in 2026 made Hormuz the first casualty.
Again the commercial motives of USA in imposing this was discussed here. The real war was not about Iran’s regime. It was about the dollar’s survival against a $10 trillion rollover problem and accelerating de-dollarization.
It is beyond doubt now that the actions of USA are not entirely well thought and not bordering on rationality. The reasons for this attitude was discussed here.
Options for Trump
The call came out of blue without any preparation. No press secretary statement offerring goodwill gesture preceded it. The 301 enquiry against India remained formally active. Instead Trump called cold, with every outstanding insult intact, expecting Modi to receive it as an honour. A telephone call from Emperor.
Before talking to Modi, President Trump had many options but there is reason to conclude he would say his piece without offering anything and that will be the end of matter. This is what he could offer but he did not:
- Order an FBI enquiry into Matthew Aaron VanDyke for transnational military operations bordering on terrorist activity. This man was arrested a few days ago by Indian authorites for espionage. this man has a history of operating in Libya, Syria, Iraq and such war zones. In India he was operating in troubled state of Manipur in North East.
- Offer release of Nikhil Gupta or David Headley or both in exchange for VanDyke, a reciprocal acknowledgment of outstanding obligations that America has avoided for decades.
- Issue immediate directions to General Electric to supply the GE 404 engines to India for which advance payment was already received while dispatching JD Vance to Delhi personally to hand over the commitment and meet Modi face to face.
When you are riding a tiger you do not dismount without offering a big sacrifice. Trump offered none.
Conclusion
Rubio stood in Munich five days before the bombs fell on Iran and called anti-colonial uprisings a contraction of civilisation. The ovation he received was not for greatness. It was the sound of an empire applauding its own eulogy while mistaking it for a battle cry. The war on Iran was the military expression of that Munich speech. The Trump-Modi call was its diplomatic aftermath.
India has passed 28 ships through Hormuz under bilateral arrangement with Iran. Japan has its own arrangement. EU is building one. The commercial world has already routed around the military impasse. A stalemated America near Hormuz costs India nothing and demonstrates everything. Iran does not need to defeat America. It only needs to remain standing, unconquered and coherent. It is doing exactly that.
Modi received the call. Said useful exchange. Named Hormuz as essential for the whole world. Agreed to stay in touch.
The man who claimed a Nobel Prize for stopping a war he did not stop called the Prime Minister of the country whose war he claimed to have stopped. CIA’s intelligence network had just been dismantled on Indian soil. His trade department maintained an active enquiry against that same country. The defence department withheld 404 GE engines already paid for. His Secretary of State in Munich had called India’s independence an uprising to be undone.
Yet he had audacity to ask for help he could not name, offer nothing, commit to nothing, and seek a favour on a promise nobody in the world would trust.
This would be most inconsequential telephone call in the year 2026.
References:
- Oman Minister’s zero stockpile statement: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/peace-within-reach-as-iran-agrees-no-nuclear-material-stockpile-oman-fm
- Mediation by Pakistan: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/pakistan-to-mediate-iran-us-talks-trump-reposts-pm-shehbaz-sharifs-tweet/articleshow/129781077.cms
- Independence of a country is uprising: https://sandeepbhalla.in/marco-rubios-speech-in-munich-is-an-eye-opener/
- Nikhil Gupta Confession: https://sandeepbhalla.in/the-nikhil-gupta-and-gurpatwant-singh-pannun-controversy-1/
- Insult ot intelligence of people of India: https://sandeepbhalla.in/the-nikhil-gupta-and-gurpatwant-singh-pannun-controversy-2/
- Accidental Empire: Story of decline of American Empire: https://sandeepbhalla.in/accidental-empire-a-book-foretelling-the-fate-of-america/
- Trump tariff on India: https://sandeepbhalla.in/trump-tariff-tempest-is-a-blind-decision-with-poor-consequences/