In July 2022, I wrote a piece comparing Maharashtra’s politics or power arrangement to the Putin–Medvedev switch in Russia. That analysis, once seen as metaphorical, now reads like a fulfilled prophecy.
What Was Predicted in 2022?
- Devendra Fadnavis stepped down to play Deputy CM; Eknath Shinde became CM.
- Shinde was to claim Shiv Sena and draw in the cadre.
- Fadnavis would effectively run the government.
- Uddhav Thackeray, cornered by health and politics, was facing an electoral wipe out.
And What Happened by 2025?
1. Fadnavis is Back – the Castling is Complete
Fadnavis is now Chief Minister again, as was always intended. The temporary role for Shinde was only a tactical detour. A classic political castling — with a checkmate waiting at the other end.
2. Shinde’s Limitations are Exposed
Shinde’s influence remains confined to Maratha-dominated belts. Beyond BJP’s blessing, he has limited independent appeal or vision. His future in Maharashtra politics is behind him.
3. Uddhav’s Fading Legacy
Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena now survives mainly on Muslim vote banks. Protests outside Matoshree demanding his opposition to the Waqf Bill only cement the irony: the original Hindutva party is now reduced to communal tokenism for survival. So much so that he has reunited with his long estranged cousin Raj Thackeray who is consistently lost popularity in election after election. Raj Thakray’s son lost the 2024 election very badly. Now they tried to ignite their politics with anti-Hindi agitation but Fadnavis with his strategic retreat, too the wind out of agitation. Both the Thackeray are back to drawing board to design for Mumbai Municipal Elections nearby and the distant 2029 elections.
4. No 2029 Relevance for Either of the Thackeray
Both political players — once symbols of rebellion and legacy — are now on the periphery. BJP’s consolidation is complete. Talk of either playing a serious role in 2029 is best left to wishful thinkers or nostalgic journalists.
As I had noted in 2022, politics — like chess — rewards those who look at the board, not the actors. Maharashtra’s BJP played both sides and now holds the whole game. Now unless Fadnavis, spoils it, which is unlikely, it is likely to remain advantage BJP in 2029 too.