Election 2026: An Overview
(Chapter 1)
Kolkatta, the capital of West Bengal was the first township established by the British, on the Banks of mighty river Hoogly, as Ganga is called over there. It is a witness to the rise and fall of British in India. British built a city in the image of London, with Chowringhee mirroring Piccadilly, Writers Building as their administrative heart, the Maidan as their Hyde Park, Victoria Memorial as their statement of permanence.
Kolkatta is witness to the mistake of then Bengali bhadralok to seek help of British and lose their civilization, almost forever. When colonialism left India, West Bengal was gripped by mirror opposite of colonialism called Communism. Both ideologies from Europe and both oppressed common person while using fancy slogans.
Communism sucked every drop of blood from the economy of Bengal in its 34 years rule. They subverted democracy by making the right to vote, a privilege of those who support the Government. A new term had to be invented called ‘source blocking’ where people were told to stay indoor on the day of voting. The Union Government which was often dependent on the support of left, looked the other way, till the left overplayed its leverage under the rule of Manmohan Singh, on nuclear deal with USA.
Rise of Mamata the Ruthless
All this changed in 2011 when elections were held under heavy deployment of central forces and Mamata Banerjee and her newly formed party Trinamool Congress (TMC) literally means grassroot congress, came into power. People rejoiced. They expected change in administration and their fortune but all they got was a new face.
With the win of TMC, a significant portion of CPM’s booth-level machinery simply changed jerseys. The violence infrastructure, the extortion networks, the local strongman system did not dismantle. It stood transferred to Mamata Banerjee. The cadre came with the territory because the cadre knew where every booth was, who every voter was, and what levers moved them. Mamata got an operational oppressive machine with the help of heavy deployment of central forces by the Union Government.
The wheel has turned again. Yesterday second phase of elections were concluded. Result will be out on 4th May 2026. Exit polls have unanimously predicted that Mamata is losing this election. What Mamata used to dismantle the Left, specifically central force protection, genuine voter expression, emotional mobilisation around specific violations, is exactly what has been used against her today.
How ruthless was her rule can be explained by a simple fact. I would be in prison, if she remained in power, for what I am going to right next. Bengal police will hunt me down.
Mamata’s Rule
There is a saying in Punjabi “Chor uchchaka choudhary, gundi run pradhan.” This saying tells about the rule of government in West Bengal.
To explain: “chor” means thief, “uchchaka” possibly as pickpocket or petty criminal, “chaudhary” as village headman or community leader. “Gundi” as female thug or hooligan. The ‘run’ is short for Punjabi word rundi or whore. But here it may not be taken in sexual context. It relates to fluid ideological virtues. It is about the complete absence of any fixed principle. A prostitute in this symbolic sense is someone who will be whatever the paying customer requires. No loyalty, no ideology, no line that will not be crossed for the right price.
It is a sociological observation about how power actually organises itself at the ground level. Those who operate outside respectable society, they will do what others won’t. The CPM cadre that joined TMC did not experience any ideological crisis. They had no ideology to abandon. They had territory, technique, and appetite. Mamata offered continuation of all three under a new flag.
This also explains something that always puzzles outside observers about West Bengal. How can the same people who burned opposition workers’ houses under the CPM banner burn them under the TMC banner without any apparent discomfort? Because the banner was never the point. The local dominance was the point. The banner is just the current client. Will this change if BJP comes into power? That is a danger we shall deal with in a separate chapter.
2026 Election
A person has uploaded an Instagram post with following video comment:
“This not good times. This time we shall have to vote ourselves. Dada log has said it”
It is Bangla satire at its best. “Dada log” almost certainly refers to local TMC strongmen or party bosses. The phrase “we shall have to vote ourselves” implies that in previous elections, those bosses either voted on behalf of residents, directed booth capture, or ensured compliance through intimidation. The video is the evidence of booth management as a norm.
The result is that about 25 to 30 percent jump in turnout in Hindu majority areas across 30 seats. Those voters existed in 2021. They were on the rolls. They simply did not vote. They were ‘source blocked’. Now ‘dada log’ are helpless.
Phase 1 on April 23 recorded a turnout of around 91-92%, with the final figure at 91.78%. The first phase covered 152 seats on 23 April 2026. Second Phase election to 142 assembly constituencies (out of 294 total) took place on 29 April 2026, covering areas including Kolkata, parts of South 24 Parganas, Purba Bardhaman, and other districts. The record voter turnout is attributed to revision of voter list. But that alone is not the case. The numbers speak for itself.
The SIR Exercise
A Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise was conducted ahead of the upcoming elections. About 63–64 lakh names were deleted from the rolls (mainly “doubtful voters” and duplicate/invalid entries), and an additional about 60 lakh names remain under adjudication (in abeyance, pending final judicial orders)
West Bengal’s electoral roll had about 7.66 crore electors before SIR and after revision this number has come town to 6.44 crore electors (around 6,44,52,609) This looks huge but it is not if you consider how the number increased between 2016 and 2021. The total number of registered electors in West Bengal grew from approximately 6.59 crore to 7.29 crore in this period. That is an increase of about 70 lacs.
We are therefore back to the numbers that existed in 2016 when Mamata won 211 seats in assembly. The voter turnout at that time was 82.7%. This time the number of voter turnout has touched 92%. It is higher because, if compared to 2016, more people have voted. Let me repeat in real numbers as well.
In year 2016 about 5.45 Crore people voted in elections out of a total of 6.59 crore. In 2021 about 5.95 crore voted in elections out of 7.29 crore. This time 6.1 crore voters have voted in 2026 out of 6.44 crore total electors. Therefore, the rise in voting percentage is substantial and not due to shrinking baseline.
As stated above, these is an increase of 20% to 30% unexplained increase in voting. A Tsunami of voters have risen to vote against the Mamata regime. Exit polls support it but they are untrustworthy. Their survey based model is outdated and does not work in India.
Vote for Change
When people come out in large numbers, they are either protecting the existing government or they want to change. So what was the single achievement of Mamata regime? Can you name one?
Massive corruption even if she herself is not proven corrupt. Recovery of huge cash rather room filled with currency notes from the sitting minister of the government. Minister is under arrest without bail.
Women safety is serious issue. Mamata in a public speech has asked women not to go out after dark. It reminds the JungleRaj from next door Bihar.
RG Kar medical college rape, killing and disappearance of evidence is not a small issue. Hundreds of Gen Z protested for weeks. The mother of victim is going door to door in elections and has avowed not to comb her hairs till Mamata is gone.
In Sandeshkhali, women naming what was done to them, on camera, by name and changed the register of the conversation entirely. Accused Shahjahan Sheikh was protected for months by the state government while those women waited for justice.
All this happened under the watch of Mamata. What do you call such a ruler? That is why that crude Punjabi saying is not crude enough.
On top of it the message from Bangladesh is clear. When Hindus across the border faced organised violence after a political transition, it did not stay as news in West Bengal. It landed as personal fear in communities with family connections across that border. The fear is heightened when Mamata give preference to Muslims over Hindus and call them the milk giving cow.
It is not just “TMC is corrupt” which was also true in 2021 and they still won 213 seats. It is corruption experienced as physical violation of women who then had to watch the state protect the violator. That is a different kind of wound.
Politicians cannot afford to wound voters emotionally and expect no repercussions. That reply has come from at least 30 constituencies where voting percentage shot up by 20 to 30 percent. These were not apathetic voters. They existed on the rolls in 2021. They simply did not vote because the cost of walking to the booth past TMC workers who knew their face and their neighbourhood was too high. One change in security architecture and they came out in a surge. Suppression looks like apathy until the suppression is removed.
But it was not simple. For years BJP cadre was demanding President rule in the state. They were convinced that administration is so corrupt and is so entrenched with party workers that free and fair election was not possible. But Election Commission tightened its belt. Home Minister provided every help. How they achieve this is the story we will discuss in a future chapter.
In the next Chapter we shall analyse the violence and reign of terror in West Bengal. People outside West Bengal can not imagine it.
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